The inaugural College Football Playoff (CFP) will kick off
on New Years Day, with two semifinals featuring the top four teams in college
football. While the field for this
historic playoff (that finally signals death to the rightfully vilified BCS)
will be set on Tuesday, December 9th, there is much football to be
played between now and then—which means there is much discussion and debate to
be had, as well.
During my time at the University of Arizona, scientific
skills and analysis earned me the nickname, “Stat. Boy.” Over the past few weeks, I used these
skills to figure out the scenario by which U of A could reach the PAC-12 Title
Game—two weeks before the Thanksgiving slate of games—and to show why Arizona
linebacker Scooby Wright III deserves an invite to this year’s Heisman ceremony
in New York*. I am now turning my
attention to the College Football Playoff, with the bold assertion that the
University of Arizona will make the field of four without help from any other team(s) if they beat Oregon in the
PAC-12 Title Game. Consider this
your College Football Playoff primer.
To quote a beer company that will remain unnamed until they
decide to sponsor this blog: “Here
We Go!”
Recap
The latest CFP rankings came out as follows:
1. Alabama (11-1 Record, SEC)
2. Oregon (11-1 Record, PAC-12)
3. TCU (10-1 Record, Big 12)
4. Florida State (12-0 Record, ACC)
5. Ohio State (11-1 Record, Big 10)
6. Baylor (11-1 Record, Big 12)
7. University of Arizona (10-2 Record, PAC-12)
The top four teams in the field face each other in two
national semifinals on New Years Day.
#1 will face #4 in the Sugar Bowl, while #2 will face #3 in the Rose
Bowl. The winners of each
semifinal will face off in the National Championship game in the House That
Jerry Built in Arlington, Texas on January 12th.
Predictions &
Projections (Team Rankings in Parentheses)
(1) Alabama faces (16) Missouri in the SEC Title Game. Alabama should have no problem keeping
its number one slot in the CFP rankings.
(2) Oregon faces (7) Arizona in the PAC-12 Title Game. This should be a great game between two
high-powered offenses and hard-hitting defenses. It features Heisman leader Marcus Mariota running the
offense for the Ducks, and Heisman contender Scooby Wright III leading the
defense for the Wildcats. Oregon
opened up as more than a two-touchdown favorite, and understandably so: it will be extremely tough for Arizona
to win this game. Oregon is one of
the top teams in the nation. It is
also extremely difficult for any team to beat an opponent twice in one
season—regardless of how good the opponent is. Oregon will be ready for this game, and it will be ready to
exact revenge on the Wildcats for its lone loss of the season, suffered at home
in Eugene on October 2nd.
Having said all of this—unbiased by my Arizona Fandom and Fanhood—I am
going to go with the Wildcats winning this matchup, for the simple reason that this
article would be pointless—and will be rendered useless aside from featuring aesthetically
pleasing writing—if the Wildcats lose.
U of A completes the season sweep and rides the victory into the CFP.
(3) TCU faces lowly Iowa State—with its 2-9 record—in a “gimme
game.” TCU should win and win big.
(4) Florida State—which has won its last three games (all
against) unranked opponents by a combined 12 points—faces (11) Georgia Tech and
the swarming defense that would have any offense in the nation scared right now. Florida State doesn’t win this game
playing the way it has played since the beginning of October. Look for the upset to finally end FSU’s
tumultuous and barely undefeated season, once and for all.
(5) Ohio St. faces (13) Wisconsin in the Big 10 Title
Game. Both teams have been
overrated for most of the season, but they have both (somehow) managed to get
to the Title Game. Ohio State did
it behind its phenomenal redshirt freshman quarterback JT Barrett, despite its
porous run defense. Wisconsin did
it on the strength of its fabulous running back Melvin Gordon. On paper I would have liked Wisconsin
anyway, but Barrett unfortunately suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Ohio
State’s win over Michigan last week, like dashing all hopes for Ohio State. Struggling on offense and keeping a
defense that is weak at stopping the run on the field against one of the top
running backs in the nation is a recipe for disaster for Ohio State, and a
recipe for success for Wisconsin.
Look for the Badgers to win this one.
(6) Baylor hosts (9) Kansas St. in a game with potentially
big playoff implications. If
Baylor wins, it will make its case for the final playoff spot if Florida State
goes down. If Baylor loses, it
will open the doors for a lot of other teams, depending on who else goes
down. Baylor barely beat Texas
Tech last weekend in a game Texas Tech’s coaching staff probably gave away by
going for a two-point conversion with eight minutes remaining in the
contest. This forced them to go
for two after they scored their final touchdown. They were unable to convert, and Baylor escaped with a 48-46
win. Baylor’s star quarterback
Bryce Petty also went down with a concussion in that game. While Baylor is 10-1, Kansas State is
9-2, with its only two losses coming to (3) TCU and (19) Auburn. Baylor should win this one, but it will
be no surprise if they lose, if they play the way they did against Texas Tech last
weekend.
What Does It All
Mean?
Alabama and TCU are locks for the CFP. While an upset is always a possibility,
Alabama is too good to fall to Missouri after the season both squads have had,
and TCU losing to lowly Iowa State when winning means a guaranteed spot in the
CFP would be one of the biggest chokes in history. Any team can win any given Friday/Saturday (Michigan vs.
Appalachian State anybody?), just not Iowa State on this Saturday.
Since the premise of this article is Arizona making the CFP
without help from other teams, we’ll say that Alabama and TCU are locks, and
Florida State finds a way to eke out another win. For the sake of the article, we’ll also say that Ohio State
beats Wisconsin and Baylor beats Kansas State. With Oregon falling, this leaves one spot for winning teams Ohio
State, Baylor, and Arizona.
So how can Arizona possibly make the CFP? How can it jump two teams already ahead
of it, who will have just beaten ranked opponents? Assuming the College Football Selection Committee sticks to its
trends and doesn’t throw us all a curve ball, the answer is “Pretty easily.”
The Case Against Ohio
State & Baylor, & The Case For Arizona
The Committee has forgotten Ohio State. They moved up last week because
Mississippi State lost ahead of them and Baylor nearly lost to Texas Tech, but
they were essentially dead to the committee when Heisman hopeful JT Barrett
broke his ankle. As has been
discussed many times over the past week, this is essentially the “Kenyon Martin
effect.” Martin was a star for the
number-one-in-the-land Cincinnati Bearcats basketball squad when he broke his
leg the game before March Madness.
The Bearcats lost their number one seed (they fell to a two-seed,
essentially ranking them as the fifth best team in the tournament at best), and
sure enough, were eliminated early on in the tournament. Ohio State may be able to play without
their QB, but even if they can do so against an overrated Wisconsin team, the
Committee has already said it will look at how well they believe a team can do
going forward (i.e. how competitive they can be in the Playoff with their team
as it currently is). Ohio State should
struggle to win this weekend. Even
if it does, Baylor and Arizona will easily jump the Buckeyes should each team
win their respective games against better, tougher opponents than Ohio State is
facing.
The Committee never liked Baylor. Baylor and TCU play in the same conference and have the same
record. The difference is, TCU’s
lone loss was to Baylor! And yet,
Baylor is behind TCU—not by one spot, but by three. The Committee has said they will not drop Florida State out
of the Playoff as long as it keeps winning and remains undefeated, so it is
understandable Baylor is behind FSU, but there is no reason for the Bears be
ranked below Ohio St. In addition
to losing Barrett, Ohio State is worse than Baylor across the board, both in
terms of teams it has beaten, and the lone team each has lost to. For whatever reason—a TCU win over
Minnesota that grows more suspect by the week—the Committee values TCU over
Baylor. While the rankings aren’t
done with public percentages released by the Committee like the BCS did and
other polls currently do, Arizona can’t be far behind Baylor. If they are pretty even going into the
weekend and Baylor Beats the ninth-ranked team while Arizona beats the
second-ranked team, Arizona should definitely jump Baylor—especially if Baylor
ekes out a win like it did against Texas Tech last week.
The Committee likes Arizona. For what seems like the first time in College Football
History, the Committee values the PAC-12 Conference. The Conference has been touting the PAC-12 Championship Game
as a CFP play-in game: the winner
will make the Playoff. Arizona
would have had a good resume ranked eighth in the nation coming into this
weekend. The Committee favored the
Wildcats and surprisingly had them jump Michigan State last week after beating ranked
Arizona State, putting Arizona in the perfect position to make the CFP.
If Arizona beats Oregon, it will arguably have the two best
wins of any team in the nation, having beaten an Oregon team ranked second in
the nation on two separate occasions away from Tucson (once on the road, once
at a neutral site). Its only
losses will have come on a last-second missed field goal to ranked USC, and on
the road to ranked UCLA. While the
Committee says that it looks at teams where they were when the matchup
happened, it has to help Arizona that UCLA and USC are both ranked in the
latest CFP rankings (#15 and #25 respectively). Also ranked are the aforementioned Arizona State Devils
(#17), and Utah Utes (#23), both of whom lost to Arizona. Arizona will have won the most
conference games of any conference champion in the nation, and will be the
champions of the conference with the second-most teams ranked in the CFP
Rankings (behind only the mighty SEC).
Why Arizona?
So why does the CFP Selection Committee like Arizona? Maybe it’s because they are an upstart
team. Maybe they like Coach Rich
Rodriguez or Scooby Wright. Maybe
they recognize how far the program has come, that this was the same program
that won eight games total from 2003-2005 and has won 10 already this season. Maybe they think the style of spread
offense Arizona runs will wow and excite fans, and maybe they just don’t like
teams that wear green and yellow or gold—whether they are from Texas or Oregon.
Regardless of the reason, the Arizona Wildcats control their
own destiny: beat Oregon to become
PAC-12 Champions, and they will find themselves in the inaugural College
Football Playoff—regardless of what other teams do.
WARNING: Biased Fan
Comment Coming Soon…
Will I feel better if Baylor, Ohio State, and Florida State
lose? No question. Any Arizona fan would be silly to rely solely
on the CFP Committee. However, we should
take solace in the fact that any help locks Arizona into a Playoff spot—as opposed
to the Wildcats needing help to make it to the CFP.
BEAR DOWN
BAY-BE!!! BEAR DOWN!
*Column on Scooby’s candidacy coming after the CFP field is
announced
Joseph D. Robbins is a poet and an educator based in New York
City. He has a BA in Creative
Writing & Judaic Studies from the University of Arizona, a Masters in the
Teaching of English from Columbia Teachers College, and a Masters in Jewish
Education from the Jewish Theological Seminary. He is pursuing State Certification in Students with Learning
Disabilities at Teachers College.
You can find his poetry album, “One Man Gang Live” at: https://itunes.apple.com/us/album/one-man-gang-live/id769044733.
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